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Newsletter 01
February 2008



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NLR-ATSI takes off! - Interview with Michel Piers

The Netherlands’ National Aerospace Laboratory (NLR) officially opened the NLR Air Transport Safety Institute (NLR-ATSI) on October 31. The institute conducts research and provides consultancy services to help improve the safety and efficiency of air transport. The institute was officially opened by Prof. Pieter van Vollenhoven, the chairman of the Dutch safety board. In his opening speech, Prof. van Vollenhoven stressed the importance of independent expertise in the improvement of safety, and the importance of a clear division of responsibilities between government and industry. He went on to add that a great deal of progress could still be made in this area.

The director of the institute, Mr Michel Piers, was asked a few questions.

Can you tell us a little about your career in air safety?
Michel: My involvement in Air Safety started when I joined the aircraft accident investigation group of NLR. As an investigator of numerous aircraft accidents, I carried out crash site surveys, laboratory investigations and causal analysis for fixed-wing and helicopter accidents in the Netherlands and abroad. These investigations - also involving ATM related accidents and incidents (mid-air collisions and loss-of-separation events) - gave me the chance to acquire extensive knowledge on and experience in aviation safety. This background was put to good use in a wide array of other safety research and consulting projects. These projects ranged from technical engineering work, for example looking into cargo fire suppression and cockpit workload effects of new crew concepts, to policy advice in areas like the implementation of confidential reporting programs and changes to safety oversight philosophies.
One particularly interesting experience was a project commissioned by the Swiss Department of Transport in a bid to strengthen Air transport Safety Management in Switzerland. The project involved all the main players in Swiss air transport: the regulator, airports, airlines, ATC, and the accident investigation board. Particular emphasis was placed on institutional arrangements for safety and the oversight practices of the regulatory authority relating to the Air Navigation Service Provider (Skyguide), the airlines and the airports. A large number of recommendations were made regarding the organization and processes of the CAA, the legal framework for accident investigation and occurrence reporting and, in particular, the introduction throughout the Swiss aviation sector of modern risk and safety safety management, in order to progress beyond the traditional regulatory compliance approach.


After receiving his aeronautical engineering degree at the Haarlem Polytechnic, Michel Piers joined NLR in 1985 as an accident investigator. He went on to become head of the Systems Group, then Head of the Flight Testing & Safety Department and now Director of the NLR Air Transport Safety Institute. Michel received further training in safety at the Royal University of Technology of Stockholm and at the University of Southern California, Los Angeles. Driven by his interest in human factors and organizational aspects of safety Michel also studied psychology at the University of Amsterdam. He is a member of various international committees and steering groups including the European Advisory Committee of the Flight Safety Foundation and the Steering Group of the European Safety Strategy Initiative. In his spare time, Michel is an active glider pilot instructor.

What, in your opinion, are the issues in Air Transport Safety that need to be resolved in the coming years?
Michel: three major challenges in air transport safety are, 1) understanding and formally demonstrating the safety performance of complex and highly integrated ATM concepts that involve extensive interaction between humans and automation, 2) improving people’s ability to cogently predict future threats before the first accident or serious accident occurs, and 3) to develop the necessary safety resilience to deal with the emerging threats of decreasing availability of skilled personnel and fast increasing numbers and types of new airspace users.

How will NLR-ATSI contribute towards meeting these challenges?
Michel: it is clear that these issues cannot be resolved overnight. Dedicated research is needed to help the aviation community meet a very important condition for growth; namely, to understand and resolve complex safety matters in an efficient, affordable, and transparent manner. Safety issues are becoming increasingly complex and demand the attention of experts from multiple disciplines. This is why the new institute clusters NLR’s existing expertise and experience in the field of air safety, bringing together specialists from various fields, including aircraft operations, human factors, aviation technology, air traffic management, legislation, and incident investigation.
Research can have a real impact on safety in a setting where the results of research projects are effectively spun off into consultancy and services that are of direct use for the organisation bearing safety responsibilities. That is why is of vital importance that our customers’ requirements drive our research. NLR-ATSI therefore maintains a large client base: we provide advice and offer solutions to all public and private organisations bearing safety responsibilities across Europe and beyond. Our client base includes airports, ANSPs, airlines, authorities, and regulation & oversight bodies - including Eurocontrol, EASA and the European Union.
We work in the areas of safety management, safety regulation, safety cases and assessments, air safety data analysis, operational and flight technical assessments, and security. The institute conducts accident investigations in the Netherlands and abroad, and maintains large databases containing information on accidents and incidents. Also, NLR-ATSI conducts safety assessments of proposed changes in aviation systems. For instance, changes in the relocation of air traffic control’s duties or changes in landing procedures. Highly practical projects supported by thorough scientific frameworks provide us with very realistic insight into the issues faced by the Air Transport community. They help us choose the right research strategy and contribute to the safety and efficiency of air transport.

How did we do in 2007?

In 2007, the trend in recent years of a decreasing number of serious accidents continued. The numbers of both fatal accidents on revenue flights and onboard fatalities during the year - while not the lowest ever - were below the general trend. Preliminary data show that 650 people were killed on revenue flights (versus 872 in 2006), in 24 fatal accidents. The regional distribution of accidents is similar to that of previous years, where Africa has shown the highest risk. In addition, the Asian region had a particularly bad year with large-scale fatal accidents in Indonesia and Thailand killing more than 200 people. It is also interesting to consider the number fatal landing overruns accidents that occurred in 2007. For many years landing overrun accidents were among the most reported kinds of accidents. Fortunately, however, most cases of such accidents are not fatal. However, 4 fatal landing overrun accidents occurred last year and resulted in 223 fatalities, according to preliminary data. NLR-ATSI has studied landing overrun accidents in great detail (see e.g. NLR Technical Paper NLR-TP-2005-498). These studies have clearly illustrated the risk factors associated with landing overruns. Furthermore, NLR-ATSI is conducting a study into normal landings using in-flight recorded data. This study should result in a better understanding of how pilots actually land their aircraft and how this affects the risk of landing overrun.

Safely upgrading Nordic towers

NLR-ATSI and her Norwegian consultancy partner, AconaCMG, are carrying out safety assessments of ATM services at a number of Norwegian airports - including Hammerfest – with the aim of achieving a wider understanding of safety-critical issues and facilitating improved safety management.

Hammerfest airport is an uncontrolled aerodrome in the northern part of Norway where Aerodrome Flight Information Service (AFIS) is provided 24 hours a day on weekdays, with up to 50 movements per day (about 11,500 per year). The aerodrome is approved for VFR operations in daylight and darkness and for non-precision IFR operations.
This safety assessment of Hammerfest ATM services was initiated by Avinor following recommendations from the Norwegian Accident Investigation Bureau and requirements from the Norwegian CAA to assess the unit’s risk level of existing services and foreseen changes. One major change for Hammerfest is the planned implementation of Hammerfest TMA, operated by the ATC unit at Alta. The principal stated safety objective is to maintain or improve the level of safety and to meet risk acceptance criteria developed by Avinor in line with EUROCONTROL’s ESARR 4 regulations.

The relationship between Avinor and the AconaCMG & NLR-ATSI team started in 2003, with a Safety Assessment conducted in Tromsø. Following this, the team also conducted assessments for the TWR/APP services at Kvernberget, Vigra, Kjevik, Banak, and Bardufoss airports. Currently, the team is finalising the assessments of AFIS units at Molde, Rørvik, and Hammerfest airports. All of these assessments were carried out under a framework agreement with Avinor that has recently been extended to 2011.

One reason why AconaCMG and NLR-ATSI have been selected by Avinor is AconaCMG’s extensive knowledge and expertise in Norwegian aviation and the local circumstances of the airports; this, in combination with NLR-ATSI’s broad knowledge of aviation in general and, in particular, air transport safety.

The primary focus of the assessment is to support decision making on safety-related issues and to provide all stakeholders with a wider understanding of safety-critical issues. The results of the studies have led to a set of requirements and recommendations that address (local) elements in the airport infrastructure, tower equipment, contingency plans, working procedures, as well as issues related to Letters of Agreement with other units, exchange of information throughout Avinor, and the Safety Management System. A follow-up project should ensure the appropriate allocation and implementation of these requirements.
AconaCMG and NLR-ATSI have adopted an approach that incorporates the basic objectives and elements of the Eurocontrol SAM methodology, i.e. hazard identification, risk assessment, and identification of risk mitigation measures. The 7 steps of the approach are shown in the picture above. Operational experts can easily be involved in the steps of hazard identification and assessment of frequency and severity of conflict scenarios. Next to the experience of (local) operational experts, the assessment is largely based on argumentation built on inputs from databases and incident reports.


The approach is 'scenario-based', where safety issues are analysed in the context of conflict scenarios. A conflict scenario is a bundle of event/state sequences related to a central hazardous situation and its possible causes and consequences. An example situation is 'Runway unexpectedly occupied while aircraft on final approach' (see picture on the right). Such a situation may have various causes and may evolve into different severities, depending on the circumstances and the opportunities that ATC and flight crew have to detect and resolve the situation. The 'scenario-based' approach provides a useful structure for the safety assessment and helps in the discussions with operational experts.

Avinor has acknowledged that this approach is particularly appropriate for the safety analysis of a whole unit. By applying the same approach to similar airports, a port-folio of the airports risk picture is built up and this helps Avinor to compare and monitor the safety performance, thereby achieving an improved safety management.


Beyond excellence at NetJets

NetJets Transportes Aéreos, S.A is an EU Air Carrier, operating a fast-growing fleet of fractionally owned business jet aircraft. As stated on the NetJets Europe website, “Safety is our top priority. It is at the heart of our operations and all the decisions we make. Safety is and always will be non-negotiable.” NetJets seeks to further develop and advance its safety management system within the highly dynamic environment that NetJets Europe operates, by embedding pro-active risk management into its decision making processes.

"Safety is an obsession at NetJets. From pilot qualifications and training to maintenance to operations, we never rest. And we refuse to compromise. No matter what it takes, your safety comes first."

www.netjetseurope.com

NetJets has selected NLR-ATSI as its partner in this project. As Catherine Thompson (NetJets’ Flight Safety Manager) states, “safety has always been a primary concern in our operations. It is a real challenge to further improve the safety level of our operations to an even higher standard. We look forward to working with the NLR-ATSI specialists because they bring safety knowledge, as well as a solid understanding of our operations to the job”.

Safety Culture down to earth

NLR-ATSI has developed a tool to assess the level of safety culture in organisations such as airlines, airports, ANSPs, supervising authorities and regulators. Safety culture is understood as ‘the set of enduring values and attitudes regarding safety issues, shared by every member of every level of the organisation’. The need for a safety culture tool became clear after a number of recent accidents were revealed to have been related to an unhealthy safety culture in the organisations concerned. Insight in the existing safety culture in non-fuzzy terms, is a prerequisite to any serious culture management program. Although questionnaires that aim to assess the level of safety culture have been developed separately for various types of organisations, a tool for all organisations that also addresses the dependencies between the organisations is lacking. A gap that NLR-ATSI hopes to bridge quickly.


Example indicators for safety culture and fictitious assessment
of safety culture level for management and employees


The tool is based on indicators for a set of safety culture characteristics, including awareness, commitment, adaptability, information, and behaviour of the organisations with respect to safety.

Safety Screening: spotting safety issues early on

NLR-ATSI and Helios Technology Ltd have developed a new interactive safety screening tool that aims to improve safety aspects in the early stages of air traffic management systems design, by identifying the changes that can positively or negatively affect safety, as well as their level of comparative importance.



Screening process in relation to safety assessment phases

The tool, which was developed as part of the SESAR (Single European Sky ATM Research) "Safety Regulation" work package that was commissioned by Eurocontrol, helps users screen projects on the basis of 17 safety fundamentals of operational performance, safety architecture, safety management, and safety regulation.

The screening method is able to generate rapid, high-level discussions of safety issues in the concept planning stage - which Eurocontrol project manager, Oliver Straeter, says "...should help foster a proactive and shared understanding of safety, and help to prevent cost-intensive recovery or delays in project delivery."
NLR-ATSI was responsible for the tool’s content and project management, while Helios was responsible for the tool's software development.


Meeting us

March 10-12 - Bucharest
EASS, 20th annual European Aviation Safety Seminar
Gerard van Es will be presenting "An Investigation Into Standard Instrument Departure (SID) Deviations".

May 18-23 - Hong Kong
PSAM 9, 9th international Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management conference
Alfred Roelen will be presenting "Development and Validation of a Comprehensive Hybrid Causal Model for Safety Assessment and Management of Aviation Systems".

June 30 - July 3 - Cologne - Germany
Fusion 2008, 11th International Conference on Information Fusion
Henk Blom is giving a plenary on "Modelling and analysis of accident risk in air traffic management".


 

NLR Air Transport Safety Institute - Anthony Fokkerweg 2, 1059 CM, Amsterdam - Tel. +31 20 511 35 00 - E-mail: info@nlr-atsi.nl